The Humidity Picks Up in the Greenwich Area as Severe Thunderstorms Loom in the Distant Future!

Humidity Returns and So Does the Thunderstorm Threat!

Good Morning,


The sky overnight has been either partly or mostly cloudy across much of

the Greenwich area, and today will bring intervals of clouds and

sunshine... Dewpoint temperatures during the night have also started

climbing along the coastal plain, since the migration of a high pressure

system into the western Atlantic has caused most surface winds to become

southerly or southeasterly...


Therefore, today will be more humid than the past two across the region,


and most temperatures should be in the middle and upper-80s this

afternoon... We talked at length yesterday about how there isn't very

much of a "trigger" available just yet to cause a few showers and

thunderstorms, and we still aren't expecting any activity to occur today...


But, as we go through the course of the next three days, we're certainly


beginning to see now some key elements starting to come together which

will support the idea that showers and thunderstorms around here can

cause us some big headaches later this week... There's the


potential for strong or severe thunderstorms in areas east of the


Appalachians Friday afternoon into early Friday night... And, depending

upon which global model you believe, there is also a possibility that we

may have to deal with some flooding issues in Greenwich and Fairfield

County from later on Friday or Friday night into Saturday...

The influx of moisture will continue along the Eastern Seaboard during the

next 36 hours, and we'll be watching the "two fronts" that we had talked

about yesterday, too... Moisture originating from the Gulf of Mexico and

the Atlantic will continue to flow over a nearly stationary front, which is

located in the Carolinas early this morning... And, the second front, or a

boundary that is sliding across the Great Lakes right now, is expected to

slow down quite a bit tomorrow, tomorrow night and early Friday as it

reaches the Northeast and the mid-Atlantic states...


Therefore, the northern front is going to be the focal point of a couple of


showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, some of which will creep into the

Tri-State, CT area tomorrow afternoon or early tomorrow night...

Friday, this very slow-moving front is going to have a wave of low

pressure developing along it... This feature will be located tomorrow

afternoon in southern Illinois, and it will be in the Ohio Valley by daybreak

on Friday... This body of low pressure will be a very important role-player

by the end of the workweek, because it will be providing some


additional lifting of very warm and moist air in the mid-Atlantic states...


This will also be enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity Friday and

Saturday in various parts of Eastern CT... At


this juncture, it looks as if most of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia,


Delaware and New Jersey will get the roughest weather on Friday/early

Friday night -- and this includes some strong or severe thunderstorms...

Meanwhile, the placement of the heaviest rain will probably be squarely


focused on much of New York and New England, the Greenwich, Fairfield

County area very late on Friday, Friday night and early Saturday...

Some of the specific details will be ironed out over the next couple of

days, but we should be preparing for storms on Friday in the Greenwich

area that could bring strong, potentially damaging wind gusts, and

pockets of rain on Friday or Saturday could be heavy enough to cause



The axis of a very strong upper-level low pressure trough located in the


Great Lakes late this week is expected to start to pivot to the north and

east later on Friday, Friday night and Saturday...


Therefore, with that surface wave emerging and tracking eastward Friday


night before heading out to sea on Saturday afternoon, preliminary

indications are that we could have a widespread distribution of 1-2 inches

of rain around Fairfield County, with some locally heavier amounts in

excess of 3 inches possible, especially near some of the higher terrain

(where there is someadditional lifting of the very moist air that takes



Have a good day!!!




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